MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE UPHEAVAL/SUBSIDENCE PHENOMENON OF THE SOIL UNDERNEATH STRUCTURES

Abstract

Degradation models used to predict the future state of components often involve simplifications and assumptions to compensate a lack of data, imprecision and vagueness, which cannot be ignored. To overcome these issues, the imprecise probabilities framework and Markovian approach are proposed for performing reliability analysis, decision-making, and risk-based design and maintenance. The reliability assessment is performed by considering the simultaneous action of many natural and technological loads, which are random by nature and can be adequately described only by stochastic processes which are not performed due to lack of valid calculation methods. This methodology has been applied to study the reliability of arctic pipeline infrastructure. It is found that the process of heaving-subsidence support can be considered as two of the Markov process: when frost heave - pure birth Markov process; and at the subsidence of support - pure death Markov process. This is applicable to soils underneath foundations for structures and infrastructures.